September 29, 2025 Market Update Courtesy of Envoy Mortgage

Market Spotlight

Week of September 29th, 2025 | #180

What You Need to Know

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KEY TAKEAWAY: Rates are holding steady in the mid-6.3% range after last week’s Fed-driven volatility, but next week’s jobs data—and whether it even gets released—could shake things up.

Two weeks ago was a rollercoaster: mortgage rates touched 11-month lows early on, only to spike higher after the Fed meeting. Last week was much calmer. PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred gauge, came in exactly as expected, keeping rates flat around 6.38%.

This week, the spotlight is on the potential government shutdown. It’s not the shutdown itself that would move rates, but the data we might miss because of it—most importantly, Friday’s jobs report. Without jobs data, markets lose their key guidepost, leaving traders guessing. That uncertainty alone could fuel volatility.