December 1, 2025 Market Update Courtesy of Envoy Mortgage

Market Spotlight

Week of December 1st, 2025 | #189

Key Takeaway: Rates held steady near 6.2% through the holiday slowdown, and all eyes now shift to December’s Fed meeting and updated economic data.

Thanksgiving week delivered exactly what we expected: very little movement. Markets were thin, volatility was meaningless, and bonds drifted sideways. Mortgage rates ticked fractionally lower but stayed locked in their narrow late-November range. Purchase demand was surprisingly resilient for a holiday week, with applications up and pending sales still running well ahead of last year.

Now the real data returns. December brings a cluster of high-impact reports—jobs, inflation, and the 10-year yield reaction—all landing ahead of the December Fed meeting, where the market is pricing in another rate cut. Rate direction over the next 2–3 weeks will depend heavily on these prints and Powell’s tone. If yields stay near 4%, mortgage rates should remain anchored near 6%.