KEY TAKEAWAY: Mortgage rates remain near 2025 lows thanks to improving spreads, even as inflation runs warm—Powell’s Jackson Hole speech this week could change the narrative.
Last week, inflation data came in hotter than expected, with PPI rising and core CPI holding at 3.1% year-over-year. Normally, this would have pushed mortgage rates higher, but spreads—the gap between mortgage rates and Treasuries—have been the unsung hero of 2025, keeping rates steady in the mid-6s. Without these spread improvements, rates would be 0.70–0.80% higher.
The week ended with stronger retail sales and some bond weakness, nudging rates slightly higher Friday afternoon. Still, rates are holding much closer to recent lows than anything we’ve seen since October 2024.
This week, markets are bracing for Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole. Traders will be listening closely for clues on how the Fed views inflation, labor, and the timing of future cuts. Jobless claims also remain on the radar as a key trigger point.
Your profile is almost complete! Just a few more details from you.
By digitally signing this form you are providing with your express written consent to send you business and marketing communications via text messages (SMS), email, and by calls or prerecorded messages dialed by a natural person or by an automatic or automated telephone dialing system. This express written consent applies to each such email address or telephone number that you provide to us now or in the future and permits such communications regardless of their purpose, unless you opt out of SMS marketing communication when submitting this form. Consent not required to register. Message frequency varies, message and data rates may apply. Text STOP to cancel, call for help.
By digitally signing this form you are providing with your express written consent to send you business and marketing communications via text messages (SMS), email, and by calls or prerecorded messages dialed by a natural person or by an automatic or automated telephone dialing system. This express written consent applies to each such email address or telephone number that you provide to us now or in the future and permits such communications regardless of their purpose, unless you opt out of SMS marketing communication when submitting this form. Consent not required to register. Message frequency varies, message and data rates may apply. Text STOP to cancel, call for help.
